Running BIP-110.bip110.run

A free public service · Follow Bitcoin through the hard fork.

The BIP-110 state machine

A block arrives. Every node answers yes or no.

Every possible path is here. Follow any current from the next block to its consequence.

Rules choose the history. Work moves it. Value feeds the work. People may change the rules again.

How consensus moves

gold = shared history / red = rejection / dashed = pressure or unfinished requirement

CANDIDATENext block

A miner proposes one candidate. Every validating node applies its own rules.

Model limits and primary sources

This is a conditional model, not a price forecast. Work allocation and buyer recognition remain separate forces because neither mechanically commands the other. The Library supplies the stress tests; primary specifications and implementations supply protocol facts.

Bitcoin consensus · executable explanation

Follow the rule change, block by block.

55% opens the early route. If miners do not reach it, BIP-110 nodes require bit 4 from block 961,632, lock in at 963,648, and enforce the temporary rules at 965,664. The open question is how much work and economic demand follows that accepted history.

Chain tip loading

Deployment The activation machine STARTED · voluntary

Two routes are open

1,109 signals in any 2,016-block period lock in early. Missing that threshold keeps the deployment STARTED until the mandatory window.

Candidate block: bit 4 is optional

Both signaling and non-signaling candidates remain eligible under the BIP-110 deployment during this stage.

BIP-110 nodenarrower rules Accepts candidates under current rules · state STARTED

Legacy nodelooser rules Shares the same history · bit 4 has no legacy validity effect

Low signaling measures weak early miner coordination. It does not close the mandatory route.

01 · Deployment state What state does accepted history reach?

Settled by the BIP and implementation.

02 · Branch survival How quickly can that history advance?

Hashpower and inherited difficulty.

03 · Convergence Which valid asset will markets value?

Demand, liquidity, infrastructure, and work.

04 · Filter effect How much behavior do the rules change?

Bounded by the exact restrictions and bypass cost.

Run the fork

The first incompatible ancestor matters more than today's percentage.

Protocol model

What does the next miner do?

Signal bit 4: one candidate satisfies both rule sets.

One history

The miner keeps a reward recognized by BIP-110 and legacy nodes.

Debug the objections

Each challenge belongs to one seam. It cannot silently defeat the other three.

Deployment SETTLED BY SPECIFICATION

55% controls the early route.

Below 1,109 signaling blocks, BIP-110 does not lock in early. The implementation still enters mandatory signaling at 961,632, forces lock-in at 963,648 on the accepted history, and activates at 965,664.

What this proves

Voluntary miner coordination has not crossed the early threshold.

What this cannot prove

It cannot prove that the accepted branch lacks a mandatory path or that 55% is a permanent miner veto.

50% hash20-minute blocksfirst retarget about 4 weeks
near 10-minute cadence about 4 weeks

10% hash100-minute blocksfirst retarget about 20 weeks
near 10-minute cadence about 25 weeks

1% hash1,000-minute blocksfirst retarget about 200 weeks
near 10-minute cadence about 265.6 weeks

The house forecast

Mechanism first. Forecast second. Falsifiers visible.

Causal forecast

The deadline should coordinate miners before the split becomes durable.

Before divergence, a bit-4 block is the lowest-friction product: both rule sets recognize it. The mandatory window turns today's cheap signal into a costly branch choice. If the enforcing economy values that compatible reward, hash can move before inherited difficulty becomes a long runway.

Rules acceptNodes define the histories they can follow.

Markets priceUsers and businesses value the resulting assets.

Revenue moves hashMiners chase purchasing-power return.

Hash improves useFaster blocks and deeper confirmations reinforce demand.

What defeats this forecast: the enforcing economy cannot attract enough work; a durable counter-market funds the incompatible history; or implementation and peering failures stop the enforcing branch from advancing.

Inspect the code, tests, and strongest arguments